Projected rise in temperature

The projected changes in temperature for the South West are severe enough to result in large parts of the current ranges of many species becoming unsuitable for those species.

Changes in average annual and seasonal temperatures can result in conditions that make a specific location unsuitable for that plant to grow or animal to thrive, i.e. the new temperature range is outside of that species’ optimal temperature range. The projected changes in temperature for the South West are severe enough to result in large parts of the current ranges of many species becoming unsuitable for those species. Changes in temperature are therefore a key indicator of ecosystem health in its current state.

Projections for South West NRM region from 2015 onwards:

  • Projected mean temperatures to rise further 5 to 1o by 2030
  • Projected number of days with over 40oC expected to more than double by 2090
  • Very few areas if any will be marginally suitable for karri by 2080 and 27% of freshwater 101 species investigate will be impacted heavily by the changing climate (e.g. black-striped minnow, Balston’s Pygmy Perch)

Case Studies

Data Source:

  • Hope, P, D Abbs, J Bhend, F Chiew, J Church, M Ekström, D Kirono, A Lenton, C Lucas, K McInnes, A Moise, D Monselesan, F Mpelasoka, B Timbal, L Webb and P Whetton. 2015. Southern and South-Western Flatlands Cluster Report. Climate Change in Australia Projections for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions. Cluster Reports, eds. Ekström, M. et al., CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia